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New Delhi :- The Union Health Ministry has dismissed a recent study published in the US-based journal, Science Advances, which alleged that India experienced significant excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The study’s claim of 1.19 million excess deaths, 17% higher than the previous year, has been termed “erroneous” by the ministry.
According to the study, the reported excess deaths are eight times higher than the official COVID-19 death toll in India and 1.5 times greater than estimates by the World Health Organization. The ministry criticized the study’s methodology, calling it “untenable and unacceptable.”
The primary concern raised by the ministry is the study’s reliance on data from a subset of households in the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), conducted between January and April 2021. The authors compared mortality rates from 2020 to 2019 and extrapolated the findings to the entire country. The ministry argued that the NFHS sample is only representative when considering the nation as a whole, and the 23% of households included from 14 states cannot represent the entire country.
Additionally, the timing of data collection, coinciding with the pandemic’s peak, might introduce selection and reporting biases, further compromising the study’s findings.
The ministry also refuted the study’s claim that India’s vital registration system is weak. They emphasized that India’s Civil Registration System (CRS) is robust, capturing over 99% of deaths. The increase in reported deaths is attributed to improved CRS coverage and a growing population base rather than the pandemic alone.
“It is strongly asserted that an excess mortality of about 11.9 lakh deaths reported in the ‘Science Advances’ paper in 2020 over the previous year is a gross and misleading overestimate,” the ministry stated.
The study’s assertion that excess mortality was higher among females and younger age groups, particularly children aged 0-19 years, contradicts existing data. Research and program data on COVID-19 in India show higher mortality in males compared to females (2:1) and in older age groups.
The ministry concluded that the all-cause excess mortality in India for 2020 is significantly lower than the 11.9 lakh deaths reported in the study.
