Des Moines: As the 2024 presidential campaign officially kicks off with the Iowa caucus, Donald Trump emerges as the overwhelming favorite to secure the Republican nomination, placing his rivals in a race for second place. Despite bone-chilling temperatures, Iowans are set to cast their votes on Monday.
Trump’s strong position has shifted the focus to the battle for second place, with both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley vying for a clear runner-up spot to position themselves as the primary alternative to Trump.
A commanding victory for Trump would strengthen his claim as the sole candidate capable of challenging Democratic President Joe Biden in the November election. It would also pose challenges for his rivals, particularly DeSantis, who has heavily invested in the Iowa caucus, considering it pivotal for his campaign.
A survey from an influential Iowa pollster released on Saturday indicated that DeSantis has slipped behind Haley, securing 16% of the state’s Republican voters compared to her 20%, while Trump maintains a substantial lead at 48%.
A robust second-place finish for either Haley or DeSantis would challenge the perception that Trump’s path to the nomination is inevitable.
For DeSantis, a third-place finish could be detrimental to his campaign, especially as the focus shifts to the more moderate state of New Hampshire. Polls there show Haley gaining ground on Trump, while DeSantis lags far behind.
Both candidates expressed confidence in exceeding expectations on Monday, avoiding outright predictions of victory.
“I have a record of doing well as the underdog… we’re gonna do well,” DeSantis stated on Fox News.
“The only numbers that matter are the ones that we’re going up, and everybody else went down,” Haley told the network. “And that shows that we’re doing the right thing.”
The severe cold across the Midwest, which led to the cancellation of several campaign events, might impact voter turnout. Iowa’s caucuses require in-person gatherings, making it essential for voters to brave the harsh conditions.
Despite the weather challenges, candidates urged their supporters to caucus on Monday.
“Brave the weather and go out and save America,” Trump urged at a rally in Indianola.
Trump’s strong hold on his loyal supporters might play to his advantage, as his backers are likely to be undeterred by the freezing conditions, according to the Iowa poll. The poll indicated that Trump has significantly more enthusiastic supporters willing to caucus.
“Iowa plays an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its primacy on the campaign calendar. Candidates often spend months introducing themselves to voters, and a poor showing in Iowa can lead to the end of many campaigns,” said Brad Boustead, a Republican Party officer in Urbandale, Iowa.
While the winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses doesn’t always secure the nomination, Trump’s consistent lead in national polls suggests a robust position despite facing legal challenges related to the 2020 election. Trump falsely claims that Biden’s victory was a result of voter fraud.
