News Report : Mohammed Yousuf
Sydney : Australians are being cautioned to prepare for an extended period of severe weather, as the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released a sobering long-term forecast. While severe weather can strike at any time, the national weather agency has highlighted that extreme conditions are most likely between October and April.
The upcoming months are expected to bring an elevated risk of heatwaves and bushfires due to El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole climate conditions. These climate drivers typically result in reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, and the impact intensifies when they occur simultaneously.
Senior meteorologist Sarah Scully stated, “Our forecast indicates a high likelihood of unusually warm temperatures across most of the country until at least February 2024. Warm nights following hot days offer little relief and can lead to heat stress.”
Much of eastern and southern Australia faces an increased bushfire risk due to soaring temperatures, diminished rainfall, and a surplus of dry vegetation. “There is an inherent danger of dangerous fires in Australia during this period,” warned Ms. Scully. “Above-average grass growth from recent years’ rainfall contributes to the heightened fire risk.”
The bushfire season commenced unusually early this year, with 70 fires ravaging New South Wales in August. Dangerous fires have since been reported nationwide, prompting emergency evacuations in numerous communities.
However, there is a glimmer of hope in BOM’s forecast. The El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events are anticipated to reduce the likelihood of tropical cyclones by 80 percent. Ms. Scully noted, “During El Nino, the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is typically below average.” Nevertheless, BOM stressed that at least one tropical cyclone usually makes landfall in Australia every season.
The northwest coast between Broome and Exmouth in Western Australia, as well as northern Queensland and the Top End of the Northern Territory, are the regions most susceptible to cyclones. Residents in these areas can expect a delayed start to the cyclone season, possibly occurring in early to mid-January, owing to changing weather patterns.
Additionally, the onset of the summer monsoon is predicted to be postponed until early January, and late spring and early summer are expected to see normal risks of severe thunderstorms. Despite the drier-than-usual conditions, BOM cautioned that heavy rainfall could still cause localized flash flooding or riverine flooding.
BOM emphasized the importance of preparation and urged Australians to stay updated with the latest weather warnings. This alarming forecast follows Australia’s hottest winter on record, underscoring the urgent need for vigilance and readiness in the face of the looming severe weather conditions.
